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Fluminense vs Vasco da Gama — odds movement

Sep 6, 2026 · 12:00 AM UTC · 83 snapshots, every 5 minutes until kickoff

How the odds moved

We recorded 83 odds snapshots, one every 5 minutes, starting 7 h 10 min before kickoff. Fluminense opened as the favorite at 2.30 (+130) and drifted to 2.49 (+149). No-vig win probability (the bookmaker margin removed): Fluminense 42% → 39%, draw 29% → 31%, Vasco da Gama 28% → 30%. The Asian handicap held at Fluminense -0.25 the whole way. The total stayed at 2.25. The sharpest single move came 2 h 45 min before kickoff: Fluminense went from 41% to 39% in five minutes.

Opening vs closing odds

First snapshotLast before start
Fluminense2.30 (+130)2.49 (+149)
Draw3.29 (+229)3.15 (+215)
Vasco da Gama3.40 (+240)3.19 (+219)
Asian handicapFluminense -0.25 · 1.96 (-104)Fluminense -0.25 · 2.11 (+111)
TotalO/U 2.25 · over 1.92 (-109)O/U 2.25 · over 2.00 (+100)

Decimal odds with American odds in brackets.

Line movement chart

Real market data sampled every 5 minutes. Win probability is shown with the bookmaker margin removed (no-vig).

Win probability · no-vig
25%32%38%45%Fluminense 39%Draw 31%Vasco da Gama 30%
Asian handicap · no change in the recorded window (-0.25)
Total · no change in the recorded window (2.25)

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