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Palmeiras vs Corinthians — odds movement

Oct 11, 2026 · 8:30 PM UTC · 503 snapshots, every 5 minutes until kickoff

How the odds moved

We recorded 503 odds snapshots, one every 5 minutes, starting 42 h 25 min before kickoff. Palmeiras opened as the favorite at 1.61 (-163) and drifted to 1.66 (-152). No-vig win probability (the bookmaker margin removed): Palmeiras 59% → 58%, draw 26% → 26%, Corinthians 15% → 15%. The Asian handicap held at Palmeiras -0.75 the whole way. The total stayed at 2.25. The sharpest single move came 20 h 50 min before kickoff: Palmeiras went from 59% to 57% in five minutes.

Opening vs closing odds

First snapshotLast before start
Palmeiras1.61 (-163)1.66 (-152)
Draw3.68 (+268)3.66 (+266)
Corinthians6.20 (+520)6.24 (+524)
Asian handicapPalmeiras -0.75 · 1.80 (-125)Palmeiras -0.75 · 1.86 (-116)
TotalO/U 2.25 · over 1.88 (-114)O/U 2.25 · over 1.99 (-101)

Decimal odds with American odds in brackets.

Line movement chart

Real market data sampled every 5 minutes. Win probability is shown with the bookmaker margin removed (no-vig).

Win probability · no-vig
7%27%47%67%Palmeiras 58%Draw 26%Corinthians 15%
Asian handicap · no change in the recorded window (-0.75)
Total (over/under)
2.252.52.25 → 2.25

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