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⚽ Soccer Brazil - Serie A Final

Bragantino vs Bahia — odds movement

Sep 5, 2026 · 7:00 PM UTC · 298 snapshots, every 5 minutes until kickoff

How the odds moved

We recorded 298 odds snapshots, one every 5 minutes, starting 59 h 50 min before kickoff. Bragantino opened as the favorite at 2.04 (+104) and shortened to 1.97 (-103). No-vig win probability (the bookmaker margin removed): Bragantino 47% → 49%, draw 27% → 26%, Bahia 27% → 25%. The Asian handicap held at Bragantino -0.5 the whole way. The total moved up from 2.5 to 2.75. The sharpest single move came 50 minutes before kickoff: Bragantino went from 47% to 49% in five minutes.

Opening vs closing odds

First snapshotLast before start
Bragantino2.04 (+104)1.97 (-103)
Draw3.55 (+255)3.76 (+276)
Bahia3.59 (+259)3.85 (+285)
Asian handicapBragantino -0.5 · 2.05 (+105)Bragantino -0.5 · 1.97 (-103)
TotalO/U 2.5 · over 1.87 (-115)O/U 2.75 · over 1.96 (-104)

Decimal odds with American odds in brackets.

Line movement chart

Real market data sampled every 5 minutes. Win probability is shown with the bookmaker margin removed (no-vig).

Win probability · no-vig
21%32%43%53%Bragantino 49%Draw 26%Bahia 25%
Asian handicap · Bragantino
-0.5-0.25-0.5 → -0.5
Total (over/under)
2.52.752.5 → 2.75

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Information only — SharpPick does not take bets. Past moves do not predict results. 18+ (21+ where required).