Sep 12, 2026 · 8:00 PM UK · 650 snapshots, every 5 minutes until kickoff
How the odds moved
We recorded 650 odds snapshots, one every 5 minutes, starting 54 h 25 min before kickoff. Arsenal opened as the favorite at 1.50 (-200) and drifted to 1.65 (-155). No-vig win probability (the bookmaker margin removed): Sunderland 13% → 15%, draw 22% → 26%, Arsenal 64% → 59%. The Asian handicap moved from Sunderland +1 to Sunderland +0.75. The total stayed at 2.25. The sharpest single move came 45 minutes before kickoff: Arsenal went from 61% to 59% in five minutes.
Opening vs closing odds
First snapshot
Last before start
Sunderland
7.15 (+615)
6.40 (+540)
Draw
4.32 (+332)
3.80 (+280)
Arsenal
1.50 (-200)
1.65 (-155)
Asian handicap
Sunderland +1 · 2.03 (+103)
Sunderland +0.75 · 2.10 (+110)
Total
O/U 2.25 · over 1.85 (-117)
O/U 2.25 · over 1.92 (-109)
Decimal odds with American odds in brackets.
Line movement chart
Real market data sampled every 5 minutes. Win probability is shown with the bookmaker margin removed (no-vig).
Win probability · no-vig
Asian handicap · Sunderland
Total (over/under)
Get the alert while the line is moving
The app sends an odds drop alert the moment a line moves, with the pick and that logic's measured hit rate.
Scan with your phone camera