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Athletico Paranaense vs Bahia — odds movement

Sep 20, 2026 · 10:30 PM UTC · 503 snapshots, every 5 minutes until kickoff

How the odds moved

We recorded 503 odds snapshots, one every 5 minutes, starting 42 h 10 min before kickoff. Athletico Paranaense opened as the favorite at 2.15 (+115) and drifted to 2.41 (+141). No-vig win probability (the bookmaker margin removed): Athletico Paranaense 44% → 40%, draw 28% → 29%, Bahia 28% → 31%. The Asian handicap held at Athletico Paranaense -0.25 the whole way. The total stayed at 2.5.

Opening vs closing odds

First snapshotLast before start
Athletico Paranaense2.15 (+115)2.41 (+141)
Draw3.45 (+245)3.33 (+233)
Bahia3.42 (+242)3.15 (+215)
Asian handicapAthletico Paranaense -0.25 · 1.86 (-116)Athletico Paranaense -0.25 · 2.06 (+106)
TotalO/U 2.5 · over 1.91 (-110)O/U 2.5 · over 1.94 (-106)

Decimal odds with American odds in brackets.

Line movement chart

Real market data sampled every 5 minutes. Win probability is shown with the bookmaker margin removed (no-vig).

Win probability · no-vig
25%32%40%47%Athletico Paranaense 40%Draw 29%Bahia 31%
Asian handicap · no change in the recorded window (-0.25)
Total · no change in the recorded window (2.5)

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Information only — SharpPick does not take bets. Past moves do not predict results. 18+ (21+ where required).