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⚽ Soccer USA - Major League Soccer Final

New York City vs New York Red Bulls — odds movement

Sep 18, 2026 · 7:30 PM ET · 623 snapshots, every 5 minutes until kickoff

How the odds moved

We recorded 623 odds snapshots, one every 5 minutes, starting 54 h 25 min before kickoff. New York City opened as the favorite at 1.76 (-132) and drifted to 1.93 (-107). No-vig win probability (the bookmaker margin removed): New York City 54% → 50%, draw 23% → 25%, New York Red Bulls 23% → 26%. The Asian handicap moved from New York City -0.75 to New York City -0.5. The total moved down from 3.25 to 3. The sharpest single move came 9 h 55 min before kickoff: New York City went from 54% to 52% in five minutes.

Opening vs closing odds

	First snapshot	Last before start
New York City	1.76 (-132)	1.93 (-107)
Draw	4.21 (+321)	3.94 (+294)
New York Red Bulls	4.05 (+305)	3.79 (+279)
Asian handicap	New York City -0.75 · 1.97 (-103)	New York City -0.5 · 1.94 (-106)
Total	O/U 3.25 · over 1.95 (-105)	O/U 3 · over 1.87 (-115)

Decimal odds with American odds in brackets.

Line movement chart

Real market data sampled every 5 minutes. Win probability is shown with the bookmaker margin removed (no-vig).

Win probability · no-vig

Asian handicap · New York City

Total (over/under)

Move timeline · UTC

20:22 New York City moneyline 1.91 → 1.93
20:07 New York City moneyline 1.88 → 1.91
19:37 New York City moneyline 1.85 → 1.88
17:17 New York City moneyline 1.84 → 1.86
17:17 Total 3.25 → 3
16:57 New York City moneyline 1.83 → 1.84
16:57 Asian handicap (New York City) -0.75 → -0.5
14:22 Total 3 → 3.25
13:52 New York City moneyline 1.87 → 1.83
13:52 Asian handicap (New York City) -0.5 → -0.75
13:37 New York City moneyline 1.78 → 1.87
13:37 Total 3.25 → 3
13:37 Asian handicap (New York City) -0.75 → -0.5
10:32 New York City moneyline 1.83 → 1.78
10:32 Total 3 → 3.25
09:12 Asian handicap (New York City) -0.5 → -0.75
07:12 Asian handicap (New York City) -0.75 → -0.5
05:37 Total 3.25 → 3
23:42 New York City moneyline 1.79 → 1.80
12:07 New York City moneyline 1.83 → 1.79
12:07 Asian handicap (New York City) -0.5 → -0.75
10:52 New York City moneyline 1.76 → 1.83
10:52 Asian handicap (New York City) -0.75 → -0.5

Where this data comes from

SharpPick samples the sharpest betting markets in the world every 5 minutes. Injuries, lineups and weather tend to reach the odds before the news, so a line that moves is usually money that moved. When a move is strong enough, the app issues a pick — and every pick is graded on the public record.

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Information only — SharpPick does not take bets. Past moves do not predict results. 18+ (21+ where required).