Oct 10, 2026 · 7:30 PM UTC · 563 snapshots, every 5 minutes until kickoff
How the odds moved
We recorded 563 odds snapshots, one every 5 minutes, starting 47 h 20 min before kickoff. Santa Clara opened as the favorite at 1.82 (-122) and drifted to 2.12 (+112). No-vig win probability (the bookmaker margin removed): Casa Pia 21% → 25%, draw 27% → 30%, Santa Clara 52% → 46%. The Asian handicap moved from Casa Pia +0.5 to Casa Pia +0.25. The total stayed at 2.25. The sharpest single move came 11 h 55 min before kickoff: Santa Clara went from 51% to 48% in five minutes.
Opening vs closing odds
First snapshot
Last before start
Casa Pia
4.57 (+357)
3.91 (+291)
Draw
3.50 (+250)
3.26 (+226)
Santa Clara
1.82 (-122)
2.12 (+112)
Asian handicap
Casa Pia +0.5 · 2.03 (+103)
Casa Pia +0.25 · 2.11 (+111)
Total
O/U 2.25 · over 2.02 (+102)
O/U 2.25 · over 2.00 (+100)
Decimal odds with American odds in brackets.
Line movement chart
Real market data sampled every 5 minutes. Win probability is shown with the bookmaker margin removed (no-vig).
Win probability · no-vig
Asian handicap · Casa Pia
Total · no change in the recorded window (2.25)
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