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⚽ Soccer Portugal - Primeira Liga Final

Maritimo vs Porto — odds movement

Oct 10, 2026 · 5:00 PM UTC · 503 snapshots, every 5 minutes until kickoff

How the odds moved

We recorded 503 odds snapshots, one every 5 minutes, starting 42 h 10 min before kickoff. Porto opened as the favorite at 1.33 (-301) and shortened to 1.30 (-332). No-vig win probability (the bookmaker margin removed): Maritimo 11% → 8%, draw 18% → 18%, Porto 71% → 74%. The Asian handicap held at Maritimo +1.5 the whole way. The total moved down from 2.75 to 2.5. The sharpest single move came 45 minutes before kickoff: Porto went from 75% to 73% in five minutes.

Opening vs closing odds

	First snapshot	Last before start
Maritimo	8.87 (+787)	11.88 (+1088)
Draw	5.16 (+416)	5.40 (+440)
Porto	1.33 (-301)	1.30 (-332)
Asian handicap	Maritimo +1.5 · 1.83 (-121)	Maritimo +1.5 · 1.93 (-108)
Total	O/U 2.75 · over 1.98 (-102)	O/U 2.5 · over 1.87 (-115)

Decimal odds with American odds in brackets.

Line movement chart

Real market data sampled every 5 minutes. Win probability is shown with the bookmaker margin removed (no-vig).

Win probability · no-vig

Asian handicap · Maritimo

Total (over/under)

Move timeline · UTC

16:42 Maritimo moneyline 10.83 → 11.88
16:27 Maritimo moneyline 10.06 → 10.83
16:12 Maritimo moneyline 11.31 → 10.06
15:58 Maritimo moneyline 11.73 → 11.31
15:58 Total 2.75 → 2.5
15:42 Maritimo moneyline 11.65 → 11.73
15:27 Maritimo moneyline 11.40 → 11.65
14:38 Maritimo moneyline 11.31 → 11.40
14:38 Total 2.5 → 2.75
13:37 Maritimo moneyline 11.40 → 11.27
13:37 Total 2.75 → 2.5
13:22 Maritimo moneyline 11.21 → 11.40
13:22 Total 2.5 → 2.75
13:07 Maritimo moneyline 11.00 → 11.21
12:02 Maritimo moneyline 11.02 → 10.96
11:47 Maritimo moneyline 10.96 → 11.02
11:32 Maritimo moneyline 11.40 → 10.96
11:32 Total 2.75 → 2.5
10:47 Maritimo moneyline 11.34 → 11.40
10:12 Maritimo moneyline 10.94 → 11.34
09:42 Maritimo moneyline 10.88 → 10.94
08:12 Maritimo moneyline 10.27 → 10.89
08:12 Total 2.5 → 2.75
07:37 Maritimo moneyline 10.21 → 10.27
06:37 Maritimo moneyline 10.58 → 10.21
06:07 Maritimo moneyline 10.78 → 10.58
05:52 Maritimo moneyline 11.06 → 10.78
05:32 Maritimo moneyline 11.31 → 11.06
05:17 Maritimo moneyline 10.53 → 11.31
02:42 Maritimo moneyline 9.82 → 10.56
23:22 Maritimo moneyline 9.76 → 9.84
17:12 Maritimo moneyline 9.43 → 9.74
12:47 Maritimo moneyline 9.35 → 9.41
10:57 Maritimo moneyline 9.21 → 9.35
09:07 Maritimo moneyline 9.06 → 9.21
09:07 Asian handicap (Maritimo) +1.25 → +1.5
08:22 Maritimo moneyline 8.93 → 9.03
05:32 Maritimo moneyline 8.69 → 8.93
04:47 Maritimo moneyline 8.74 → 8.69
04:32 Maritimo moneyline 8.85 → 8.74
04:32 Total 2.75 → 2.5
04:32 Asian handicap (Maritimo) +1.5 → +1.25

Where this data comes from

SharpPick samples the sharpest betting markets in the world every 5 minutes. Injuries, lineups and weather tend to reach the odds before the news, so a line that moves is usually money that moved. When a move is strong enough, the app issues a pick — and every pick is graded on the public record.

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