Oct 11, 2026 · 7:30 PM UTC · 506 snapshots, every 5 minutes until kickoff
How the odds moved
We recorded 506 odds snapshots, one every 5 minutes, starting 42 h 25 min before kickoff. Arouca opened as the favorite at 2.08 (+108) and drifted to 2.15 (+115). No-vig win probability (the bookmaker margin removed): Arouca 46% → 45%, draw 27% → 27%, Estrela da Amadora 27% → 28%. The Asian handicap held at Arouca -0.25 the whole way. The total stayed at 2.5. The sharpest single move came 9 h 10 min before kickoff: Arouca went from 47% to 44% in five minutes.
Opening vs closing odds
First snapshot
Last before start
Arouca
2.08 (+108)
2.15 (+115)
Draw
3.55 (+255)
3.52 (+252)
Estrela da Amadora
3.47 (+247)
3.50 (+250)
Asian handicap
Arouca -0.25 · 1.81 (-124)
Arouca -0.25 · 1.87 (-115)
Total
O/U 2.5 · over 1.88 (-114)
O/U 2.5 · over 1.89 (-113)
Decimal odds with American odds in brackets.
Line movement chart
Real market data sampled every 5 minutes. Win probability is shown with the bookmaker margin removed (no-vig).
Win probability · no-vig
Asian handicap · Arouca
Total · no change in the recorded window (2.5)
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