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Saitama Seibu Lions vs Orix Buffaloes — odds movement

Sep 29, 2026 · 6:00 PM JST · 228 snapshots, every 5 minutes until first pitch

How the odds moved

We recorded 228 odds snapshots, one every 5 minutes, starting 19 h 15 min before first pitch. Saitama Seibu Lions opened as the favorite at 1.56 (-178) and shortened to 1.45 (-221). No-vig win probability (the bookmaker margin removed): Saitama Seibu Lions 62% → 67%, Orix Buffaloes 38% → 33%. The run line held at Saitama Seibu Lions -1.5 the whole way. The total stayed at 6.5. The sharpest single move came 35 minutes before first pitch: Orix Buffaloes went from 35% to 33% in five minutes.

Opening vs closing odds

First snapshotLast before start
Saitama Seibu Lions1.56 (-178)1.45 (-221)
Orix Buffaloes2.56 (+156)2.90 (+190)
run lineSaitama Seibu Lions -1.5 · 2.26 (+126)Saitama Seibu Lions -1.5 · 2.04 (+104)
TotalO/U 6.5 · over 1.93 (-107)O/U 6.5 · over 2.00 (+100)

Decimal odds with American odds in brackets.

Line movement chart

Real market data sampled every 5 minutes. Win probability is shown with the bookmaker margin removed (no-vig).

Win probability · no-vig
27%42%58%73%Saitama Seibu Lions 67%Orix Buffaloes 33%
run line · no change in the recorded window (-1.5)
Total · no change in the recorded window (6.5)

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Information only — SharpPick does not take bets. Past moves do not predict results. 18+ (21+ where required).