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⚽ Soccer USA - Major League Soccer Final

Chicago Fire vs New York City — odds movement

Oct 10, 2026 · 2:30 PM ET · 641 snapshots, every 5 minutes until kickoff

How the odds moved

We recorded 641 odds snapshots, one every 5 minutes, starting 54 h 30 min before kickoff. Chicago Fire opened as the favorite at 1.81 (-123) and drifted to 1.97 (-103). No-vig win probability (the bookmaker margin removed): Chicago Fire 52% → 49%, draw 24% → 24%, New York City 24% → 27%. The Asian handicap held at Chicago Fire -0.5 the whole way. The total stayed at 3. The sharpest single move came 11 h 25 min before kickoff: Chicago Fire went from 52% to 49% in five minutes.

Opening vs closing odds

First snapshotLast before start
Chicago Fire1.81 (-123)1.97 (-103)
Draw3.98 (+298)3.95 (+295)
New York City3.98 (+298)3.64 (+264)
Asian handicapChicago Fire -0.5 · 1.83 (-121)Chicago Fire -0.5 · 1.98 (-102)
TotalO/U 3 · over 1.90 (-111)O/U 3 · over 1.86 (-116)

Decimal odds with American odds in brackets.

Line movement chart

Real market data sampled every 5 minutes. Win probability is shown with the bookmaker margin removed (no-vig).

Win probability · no-vig
19%32%45%58%Chicago Fire 49%Draw 24%New York City 27%
Asian handicap · no change in the recorded window (-0.5)
Total · no change in the recorded window (3)

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