Sep 7, 2026 · 7:15 PM UTC · 503 snapshots, every 5 minutes until kickoff
How the odds moved
We recorded 503 odds snapshots, one every 5 minutes, starting 42 h 10 min before kickoff. Estoril opened as the favorite at 2.35 (+135) and drifted to 2.59 (+159). No-vig win probability (the bookmaker margin removed): Estoril 41% → 37%, draw 28% → 28%, Arouca 32% → 34%. The Asian handicap moved from Estoril -0.25 to Estoril 0. The total stayed at 2.5. The sharpest single move came 30 minutes before kickoff: Estoril went from 35% to 37% in five minutes.
Opening vs closing odds
First snapshot
Last before start
Estoril
2.35 (+135)
2.59 (+159)
Draw
3.42 (+242)
3.44 (+244)
Arouca
3.02 (+202)
2.81 (+181)
Asian handicap
Estoril -0.25 · 2.04 (+104)
Estoril 0 · 1.88 (-114)
Total
O/U 2.5 · over 1.85 (-117)
O/U 2.5 · over 1.85 (-117)
Decimal odds with American odds in brackets.
Line movement chart
Real market data sampled every 5 minutes. Win probability is shown with the bookmaker margin removed (no-vig).
Win probability · no-vig
Asian handicap · Estoril
Total · no change in the recorded window (2.5)
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