Sep 19, 2026 · 2:30 PM UTC · 503 snapshots, every 5 minutes until kickoff
How the odds moved
We recorded 503 odds snapshots, one every 5 minutes, starting 42 h 10 min before kickoff. Famalicao opened as the favorite at 2.09 (+109) and shortened to 1.95 (-105). No-vig win probability (the bookmaker margin removed): Nacional da Madeira 26% → 22%, draw 29% → 29%, Famalicao 46% → 50%. The Asian handicap moved from Nacional da Madeira +0.25 to Nacional da Madeira +0.5. The total stayed at 2.25. The sharpest single move came 55 minutes before kickoff: Famalicao went from 47% to 48% in five minutes.
Opening vs closing odds
First snapshot
Last before start
Nacional da Madeira
3.69 (+269)
4.40 (+340)
Draw
3.31 (+231)
3.39 (+239)
Famalicao
2.09 (+109)
1.95 (-105)
Asian handicap
Nacional da Madeira +0.25 · 2.07 (+107)
Nacional da Madeira +0.5 · 1.94 (-106)
Total
O/U 2.25 · over 1.86 (-116)
O/U 2.25 · over 1.93 (-108)
Decimal odds with American odds in brackets.
Line movement chart
Real market data sampled every 5 minutes. Win probability is shown with the bookmaker margin removed (no-vig).
Win probability · no-vig
Asian handicap · Nacional da Madeira
Total · no change in the recorded window (2.25)
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