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🏀 Basketball WNBA Final

Phoenix Mercury vs Dallas Wings — odds movement

Sep 21, 2026 · 10:00 PM ET · 273 snapshots, every 5 minutes until tip-off

How the odds moved

We recorded 273 odds snapshots, one every 5 minutes, starting 25 h 15 min before tip-off. Dallas Wings opened as the favorite at 1.41 (-241) and drifted to 1.43 (-231). No-vig win probability (the bookmaker margin removed): Phoenix Mercury 33% → 33%, Dallas Wings 67% → 67%. The spread held at Phoenix Mercury +6 the whole way. The total moved up from 173 to 174.5.

Opening vs closing odds

First snapshotLast before start
Phoenix Mercury2.93 (+193)2.93 (+193)
Dallas Wings1.41 (-241)1.43 (-231)
spreadPhoenix Mercury +6 · 1.92 (-109)Phoenix Mercury +6 · 1.93 (-108)
TotalO/U 173 · over 1.88 (-114)O/U 174.5 · over 1.91 (-110)

Decimal odds with American odds in brackets.

Line movement chart

Real market data sampled every 5 minutes. Win probability is shown with the bookmaker margin removed (no-vig).

Win probability · no-vig
26%42%58%74%Phoenix Mercury 33%Dallas Wings 67%
spread · no change in the recorded window (+6)
Total (over/under)
170.5171.5172172.5173173.5173 → 174.5

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