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🏀 Basketball WNBA Final

Phoenix Mercury vs Las Vegas Aces — odds movement

Sep 24, 2026 · 10:00 PM ET · 221 snapshots, every 5 minutes until tip-off

How the odds moved

We recorded 221 odds snapshots, one every 5 minutes, starting 19 h 5 min before tip-off. Las Vegas Aces opened as the favorite at 1.21 (-482) and drifted to 1.21 (-473). No-vig win probability (the bookmaker margin removed): Phoenix Mercury 21% → 20%, Las Vegas Aces 79% → 80%. The spread held at Phoenix Mercury +10 the whole way. The total stayed at 174.

Opening vs closing odds

First snapshotLast before start
Phoenix Mercury4.60 (+360)4.73 (+373)
Las Vegas Aces1.21 (-482)1.21 (-473)
spreadPhoenix Mercury +10 · 1.90 (-111)Phoenix Mercury +10 · 1.89 (-112)
TotalO/U 174 · over 1.90 (-111)O/U 174 · over 1.85 (-117)

Decimal odds with American odds in brackets.

Line movement chart

Real market data sampled every 5 minutes. Win probability is shown with the bookmaker margin removed (no-vig).

Win probability · no-vig
8%36%64%92%Phoenix Mercury 20%Las Vegas Aces 80%
spread · Phoenix Mercury
+9.5+10+10.5+10 → +10
Total (over/under)
174175176174 → 174

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Information only — SharpPick does not take bets. Past moves do not predict results. 18+ (21+ where required).